Current state of the league

After round 37, Barcelona leads the LaLiga title race, winning the league in 100.0% of our Monte Carlo simulations and projected to finish on 95.7 points. Real Madrid is the nearest challenger at 0.0% title probability, with Champions League places contested among the rest of the top half. At the other end of the table Oviedo carries the highest relegation risk at 100.0%, followed by Mallorca (85.1%). Every probability below is recomputed from scratch each week, combining ELO ratings updated from real match results with hundreds of thousands of remaining-season simulations.