Premier League round 33 snapshot
Monte Carlo probabilities for every Premier League club after round 33.
Last updated 2026-05-18
Round 33 summary
After round 33, Arsenal leads the Premier League title race, winning the league in 65.5% of our Monte Carlo simulations and projected to finish on 83.5 points. Manchester City is the nearest challenger at 34.5% title probability, with Champions League places contested among the rest of the top half. At the other end of the table Burnley carries the highest relegation risk at 100.0%, followed by Wolves (100.0%). Every probability below is recomputed from scratch each week, combining ELO ratings updated from real match results with hundreds of thousands of remaining-season simulations.
| # | Team | xPts | xPos | Most likely | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 83.5 | 1.2 | #1 (78.6%) | 1718 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 81.1 | 1.8 | #2 (78.6%) | 1735 |
| 3 | Manchester Utd | 69.1 | 3.0 | #3 (100.0%) | 1657 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 62.5 | 4.4 | #4 (60.8%) | 1538 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 60.8 | 4.7 | #5 (53.5%) | 1550 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 57.9 | 6.1 | #6 (76.0%) | 1570 |
| 7 | Brighton | 54.7 | 7.2 | #7 (54.0%) | 1528 |
| 8 | Chelsea | 52.7 | 8.8 | #8 (35.3%) | 1459 |
| 9 | Brentford | 53.0 | 8.8 | #9 (53.0%) | 1525 |
| 10 | Sunderland | 51.9 | 10.3 | #11 (41.0%) | 1449 |
| 11 | Newcastle Utd | 50.2 | 11.5 | #13 (25.2%) | 1501 |
| 12 | Everton | 50.4 | 11.7 | #12 (31.9%) | 1483 |
| 13 | Fulham | 50.6 | 11.9 | #13 (34.2%) | 1459 |
| 14 | Leeds United | 48.2 | 13.6 | #14 (58.8%) | 1528 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 45.9 | 15.1 | #15 (71.0%) | 1428 |
| 16 | Nottingham | 44.0 | 15.9 | #16 (76.7%) | 1508 |
| 17 | Tottenham | 40.3 | 17.0 | #17 (86.4%) | 1397 |
| 18 | West Ham | 37.6 | 17.9 | #18 (90.9%) | 1400 |
| 19 | Burnley | 22.7 | 19.3 | #19 (73.7%) | 1274 |
| 20 | Wolves | 20.2 | 19.7 | #20 (73.7%) | 1293 |