Our model makes Almeria the favourite at home against Valladolid in LaLiga Hypermotion, winning the match in 51.5% of simulations compared to 27.1% for an away win and 21.4% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.04 for Almeria and 1.44 for Valladolid, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Almeria is projected to finish on 73.9 points (ELO 1590) while Valladolid is on 48.2 points (ELO 1437). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga Hypermotion results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga Hypermotion · match prediction
Almeria vs Valladolid
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Almeria
51.5%
Draw
21.4%
Away win
Valladolid
27.1%
xG · Almeria
2.04
xG · Valladolid
1.44
Home
Almeria
- Expected points
- 73.9
- Most likely finish
- #3
- ELO
- 1590
Full season outlook →
Away
Valladolid
- Expected points
- 48.2
- Most likely finish
- #16
- ELO
- 1437
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga Hypermotion. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.