Manchester City is the slight favourite on the road against Bournemouth in Premier League, winning 50.8% of simulations to Bournemouth's 27.4% (21.8% draw). Expected goals land at 1.55 for Bournemouth and 2.02 for Manchester City, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Bournemouth is projected to finish on 57.9 points (ELO 1570) while Manchester City is on 81.1 points (ELO 1735). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
Bournemouth vs Manchester City
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Bournemouth
27.4%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
Manchester City
50.8%
xG · Bournemouth
1.55
xG · Manchester City
2.02
Home
Bournemouth
- Expected points
- 57.9
- Most likely finish
- #6
- ELO
- 1570
Full season outlook →
Away
Manchester City
- Expected points
- 81.1
- Most likely finish
- #2
- ELO
- 1735
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.