Our model makes Brighton the favourite at home against Manchester Utd in Premier League, winning the match in 49.2% of simulations compared to 28.1% for an away win and 22.7% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.95 for Brighton and 1.47 for Manchester Utd, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Brighton is projected to finish on 54.7 points (ELO 1528) while Manchester Utd is on 69.1 points (ELO 1657). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
Brighton vs Manchester Utd
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Brighton
49.2%
Draw
22.7%
Away win
Manchester Utd
28.1%
xG · Brighton
1.95
xG · Manchester Utd
1.47
Home
Brighton
- Expected points
- 54.7
- Most likely finish
- #7
- ELO
- 1528
Full season outlook →
Away
Manchester Utd
- Expected points
- 69.1
- Most likely finish
- #3
- ELO
- 1657
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.