Our model makes Fulham the favourite at home against Newcastle Utd in Premier League, winning the match in 45.1% of simulations compared to 31.9% for an away win and 22.9% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.94 for Fulham and 1.39 for Newcastle Utd, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Fulham is projected to finish on 50.6 points (ELO 1459) while Newcastle Utd is on 50.2 points (ELO 1501). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
Fulham vs Newcastle Utd
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Fulham
45.1%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
Newcastle Utd
31.9%
xG · Fulham
1.94
xG · Newcastle Utd
1.39
Home
Fulham
- Expected points
- 50.6
- Most likely finish
- #13
- ELO
- 1459
Full season outlook →
Away
Newcastle Utd
- Expected points
- 50.2
- Most likely finish
- #13
- ELO
- 1501
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.