Our model makes Manchester City the favourite at home against Aston Villa in Premier League, winning the match in 71.8% of simulations compared to 11.8% for an away win and 16.4% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.71 for Manchester City and 1.05 for Aston Villa, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Manchester City is projected to finish on 81.1 points (ELO 1735) while Aston Villa is on 62.5 points (ELO 1538). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Manchester City
71.8%
Draw
16.4%
Away win
Aston Villa
11.8%
xG · Manchester City
2.71
xG · Aston Villa
1.05
Home
Manchester City
- Expected points
- 81.1
- Most likely finish
- #2
- ELO
- 1735
Full season outlook →
Away
Aston Villa
- Expected points
- 62.5
- Most likely finish
- #4
- ELO
- 1538
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.