Our model makes West Ham the favourite at home against Leeds United in Premier League, winning the match in 45.1% of simulations compared to 31.2% for an away win and 23.7% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.76 for West Ham and 1.42 for Leeds United, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, West Ham is projected to finish on 37.6 points (ELO 1400) while Leeds United is on 48.2 points (ELO 1528). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest Premier League results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
Premier League · match prediction
West Ham vs Leeds United
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
West Ham
45.1%
Draw
23.7%
Away win
Leeds United
31.2%
xG · West Ham
1.76
xG · Leeds United
1.42
Home
West Ham
- Expected points
- 37.6
- Most likely finish
- #18
- ELO
- 1400
Full season outlook →
Away
Leeds United
- Expected points
- 48.2
- Most likely finish
- #14
- ELO
- 1528
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for Premier League. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.