LaLiga Hypermotion round 38 snapshot
Monte Carlo probabilities for every LaLiga Hypermotion club after round 38.
Last updated 2026-05-18
Round 38 summary
After round 38, Racing Santander leads the LaLiga Hypermotion promotion race with a 62.7% chance of finishing top and an expected 80.9 points. Almeria is the closest challenger at 24.2%, with the promotion playoff places still open across the chasing pack. At the other end of the table Cultural Leonesa carries the highest relegation risk at 96.7%, followed by Zaragoza (82.2%). Every probability below is recomputed from scratch each week, combining ELO ratings updated from real match results with hundreds of thousands of remaining-season simulations.
| # | Team | xPts | xPos | Most likely | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Santander | 80.9 | 1.1 | #1 (93.7%) | 1649 |
| 2 | Deportivo | 77.2 | 2.2 | #2 (73.3%) | 1640 |
| 3 | Almeria | 73.9 | 3.6 | #3 (43.7%) | 1590 |
| 4 | Malaga | 72.5 | 4.1 | #4 (35.0%) | 1650 |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 72.0 | 4.8 | #5 (33.6%) | 1579 |
| 6 | Castellon | 69.8 | 5.9 | #6 (35.2%) | 1610 |
| 7 | Burgos | 69.1 | 6.7 | #7 (53.0%) | 1582 |
| 8 | Eibar | 66.5 | 7.8 | #8 (60.2%) | 1597 |
| 9 | Córdoba CF | 63.0 | 9.3 | #9 (52.5%) | 1517 |
| 10 | FC Andorra | 61.2 | 10.0 | #10 (45.7%) | 1605 |
| 11 | Albacete | 59.2 | 11.3 | #11 (39.9%) | 1565 |
| 12 | Sporting Gijon | 58.0 | 11.8 | #12 (49.0%) | 1467 |
| 13 | Ceuta | 56.9 | 12.5 | #13 (65.4%) | 1445 |
| 14 | Granada | 50.7 | 14.5 | #14 (64.4%) | 1448 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad B | 48.7 | 15.5 | #15 (35.0%) | 1433 |
| 16 | Valladolid | 48.2 | 15.9 | #16 (35.9%) | 1437 |
| 17 | Leganes | 47.1 | 16.1 | #17 (40.3%) | 1451 |
| 18 | Cadiz | 41.9 | 18.4 | #18 (58.2%) | 1307 |
| 19 | Mirandés | 39.6 | 19.6 | #19 (31.5%) | 1385 |
| 20 | Huesca | 38.7 | 20.1 | #20 (25.5%) | 1372 |
| 21 | Cultural Leonesa | 38.4 | 20.7 | #21 (31.6%) | 1340 |
| 22 | Zaragoza | 37.1 | 21.1 | #22 (47.1%) | 1328 |