Our model makes Alaves the favourite at home against Rayo Vallecano in LaLiga, winning the match in 45.7% of simulations compared to 29.5% for an away win and 24.8% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.70 for Alaves and 1.30 for Rayo Vallecano, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Alaves is projected to finish on 44.6 points (ELO 1433) while Rayo Vallecano is on 48.1 points (ELO 1522). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Alaves
45.7%
Draw
24.8%
Away win
Rayo Vallecano
29.5%
xG · Alaves
1.70
xG · Rayo Vallecano
1.30
Home
Alaves
- Expected points
- 44.6
- Most likely finish
- #11
- ELO
- 1433
Full season outlook →
Away
Rayo Vallecano
- Expected points
- 48.1
- Most likely finish
- #9
- ELO
- 1522
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.