Our model makes Celta Vigo the favourite at home against Sevilla in LaLiga, winning the match in 50.1% of simulations compared to 25.2% for an away win and 24.6% for a draw. Expected goals land at 1.67 for Celta Vigo and 1.21 for Sevilla, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Celta Vigo is projected to finish on 52.8 points (ELO 1517) while Sevilla is on 44.0 points (ELO 1429). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Celta Vigo
50.1%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
Sevilla
25.2%
xG · Celta Vigo
1.67
xG · Sevilla
1.21
Home
Celta Vigo
- Expected points
- 52.8
- Most likely finish
- #6
- ELO
- 1517
Full season outlook →
Away
Sevilla
- Expected points
- 44.0
- Most likely finish
- #16
- ELO
- 1429
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.