Our model makes Girona the favourite at home against Elche in LaLiga, winning the match in 56.7% of simulations compared to 21.4% for an away win and 21.8% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.14 for Girona and 1.23 for Elche, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Girona is projected to finish on 41.9 points (ELO 1426) while Elche is on 42.9 points (ELO 1448). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Girona vs Elche
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Girona
56.7%
Draw
21.8%
Away win
Elche
21.4%
xG · Girona
2.14
xG · Elche
1.23
Home
Girona
- Expected points
- 41.9
- Most likely finish
- #19
- ELO
- 1426
Full season outlook →
Away
Elche
- Expected points
- 42.9
- Most likely finish
- #17
- ELO
- 1448
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.