Our model makes Mallorca the favourite at home against Oviedo in LaLiga, winning the match in 50.1% of simulations compared to 28.7% for an away win and 21.2% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.00 for Mallorca and 1.76 for Oviedo, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Mallorca is projected to finish on 40.7 points (ELO 1414) while Oviedo is on 30.1 points (ELO 1345). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Mallorca vs Oviedo
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Mallorca
50.1%
Draw
21.2%
Away win
Oviedo
28.7%
xG · Mallorca
2.00
xG · Oviedo
1.76
Home
Mallorca
- Expected points
- 40.7
- Most likely finish
- #19
- ELO
- 1414
Full season outlook →
Away
Oviedo
- Expected points
- 30.1
- Most likely finish
- #20
- ELO
- 1345
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.