Our model makes Villarreal the favourite at home against Atletico Madrid in LaLiga, winning the match in 51.8% of simulations compared to 26.7% for an away win and 21.6% for a draw. Expected goals land at 2.26 for Villarreal and 1.37 for Atletico Madrid, consistent with the win-probability split above. Season-wide, Villarreal is projected to finish on 70.8 points (ELO 1584) while Atletico Madrid is on 70.0 points (ELO 1594). Every number here is recomputed from scratch each week once the latest LaLiga results are in, so the odds you see today reflect the current form of both teams — not a pre-season prediction.
LaLiga · match prediction
Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
Last updated: 2026-05-19
Home win
Villarreal
51.8%
Draw
21.6%
Away win
Atletico Madrid
26.7%
xG · Villarreal
2.26
xG · Atletico Madrid
1.37
Home
Villarreal
- Expected points
- 70.8
- Most likely finish
- #3
- ELO
- 1584
Full season outlook →
Away
Atletico Madrid
- Expected points
- 70.0
- Most likely finish
- #4
- ELO
- 1594
Full season outlook →
About this prediction
Football Probs runs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations every week for LaLiga. The match odds above come directly from those runs — no betting-market scraping, no hand-tuning. If you spot anything that looks wrong, the current round snapshot and the underlying ELO ratings are visible on each team's page.